The mergers and acquisitions (M&A) landscape has faced significant headwinds over the past few years, from skyrocketing interest rates to a hawkish regulatory environment. However, as we look toward the horizon, the narrative is beginning to shift. In a recent segment on ‘Bloomberg Markets,’ Nina Trentmann, Bloomberg’s News Editor for Corporate Finance, sat down with hosts Vonnie Quinn and Isabelle Lee to discuss why 2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for global dealmaking.
### The 2026 Horizon: A Long-Term Recovery
While much of the current financial discourse focuses on the immediate quarter, Trentmann highlighted that the wheels of major corporate transactions often turn slowly. The outlook for 2026 is particularly optimistic because it represents a period where “pent-up demand” meets “strategic necessity.” Companies that have sat on the sidelines during the volatility of 2023 and 2024 are now mapping out long-term growth strategies that require scale—and that scale is found through acquisitions.
### Geopolitics: From Deterrent to Decision Factor
One of the most complex variables in any deal is the geopolitical climate. Trentmann noted that while global tensions remain high, they are no longer the “deal-killers” they once were. Instead, geopolitics has become a priced-in risk. Corporations are moving away from globalization at all costs and are instead focusing on “friend-shoring” and regional stability. For 2026, this means dealmaking will likely be more targeted, with a focus on securing supply chains and entering markets that offer political predictability.
### A Thaw in the Regulatory Frost?
Perhaps the most surprising takeaway from the discussion was the evolving role of US regulators. Under the current administration, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) have been notably aggressive in scrutinizing large-scale mergers. However, Trentmann observed a trend where fewer deals are being officially challenged compared to the height of the recent regulatory crackdown.
This shift suggests that corporations are becoming more adept at structuring deals that can pass muster, or that regulators are choosing their battles more selectively. For boards of directors, this reduced friction provides a clearer path to completion, reducing the “regulatory tax” of time and legal fees that often sink prospective deals.
### The Impact of Lowering Financing Costs
No discussion on M&A is complete without mentioning the cost of capital. The prospect of lowering financing costs is the “engine room” of the 2026 outlook. As central banks signal a potential easing of interest rates, the math for Private Equity (PE) firms and corporate buyers begins to change. Lower rates mean higher leverage availability and more attractive valuations, allowing buyers to bridge the gap between their offer and the seller’s expectations.
### Conclusion: A Confluence of Favorable Factors
The conversation between Trentmann, Quinn, and Lee paints a picture of a market that is regaining its confidence. By 2026, the combination of a more navigable regulatory environment, stabilized (and potentially lower) financing costs, and a pragmatic approach to geopolitics could create a “perfect storm” for a dealmaking boom.
For investors and corporate leaders, the message is clear: the era of stagnation is ending. The next eighteen months will be about positioning, preparation, and the pursuit of strategic growth in a stabilizing global economy.